By Bob Evans
Senior Writer
As the 2013 NFL Draft season draws closer, the Cleveland Browns will have a tough decision when deciding who to use the No. 6 pick in the draft on. Common sense says the team will look to upgrade their outside linebacker position thanks to their switch to the 3-4 defensive scheme, which has led many people to already speculate which direction the Browns should go with that pick.
For those who are not big into research, the easy choice is whoever racked up the most sacks last year in college. If the Browns were to follow this logic, then the team’s top three potential outside linebacker candidates should be Georgia’s Jarvis Jones (14.5 sacks, 24.5 tackles for loss and 85 total tackles), Florida State’s Bjoern Werner (13 sacks, 18 tackles for loss and 42 total tackles) or Texas A&M’s Damontre Moore (12.5 sacks, 21 tackles for loss and 85 total tackles).
It seems pretty simple enough, right? These men dominated offensive linemen at the collegiate ranks; therefore they should easily be the most dominant at their positions when it comes time to take their game to the next level in the NFL.
While it is likely these men will go on to have solid NFL careers, there is no guarantee they will end up being the top outside linebackers in the 2013 NFL Draft. If you don’t believe me that the future NFL stars aren’t always sack monsters in college, just ask guys like J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Clay Matthews III.
These three men were ranked one, two and five, respectively, in the NFL last season in sacks—yet totaled just 31.5 sacks during their collegiate careers according to Pro Football Reference. Watt registered just seven sacks during his final season in college in 2010, Smith just three sacks (in just nine games) and Matthews had 4.5 sacks during his senior campaign in 2008.
So what did these players have that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet for the common fan? Well, there are a number of things.
Watt was labeled as having one of the most relentless motors in the 2011 NFL Draft class. His 36.5 tackles for loss during his collegiate career (just 11.5 sacks) tell a better story of the type of player he would become in the NFL. Watt will do anything it takes to disrupt the quarterback; including perfecting the art of batting down passes to drive a quarterback crazy. But his continuous fight on the field is why he has developed into one of the better pass rushers in the league at 6’5” and 295 pounds.
Smith, unlike Watt, was more of an unknown commodity coming out of Missouri. Despite playing just two seasons, Smith would be taken No. 7 overall by the 49ers in that same 2011 NFL Draft based on his freakish athleticism—as he stands just 6’4” and 258 pounds, but showed burst (not speed) unrivaled by many people in his draft class. He even received comparisons to DeMarcus Ware—absolutely smashing those comparisons by posting 33.5 sacks in his first two seasons in the league.
Matthews, son of Browns’ great Clay, would not be as highly drafted as these two—falling to No. 26 in the 2009 NFL Draft—but has registered some gaudy sack numbers of his own (42.5 in four seasons). Despite registering just 5.5 in college (4.5 coming in his senior year), Matthews has used his 6’3” and 255-pound frame to establish himself as one of the premier pass rushers in this game thanks to his relentless motor and excellent technique.
What does this all mean for Browns fans? First off, it means that a dominant pass rusher can be found at different stages of the first round, and not just in the Top 10. Secondly, it means that just because a player is touted as the “best statistically” in the nation, they may not always end up being the best pass rusher.
Now I am not knocking Jones, Werner or Moore by any means, they are all excellent prospects who each bring a special set of skills to their prospective NFL team. But what I am saying is that fans and analysts need to look a little deeper when trying to decipher who is the best fit for the Browns—and there are two players who certainly fit the Watt, Smith and Matthews mold.
The first of those players is LSU’s Barkevious Mingo; who was utilized as a defensive end and sometimes even defensive tackle in college. Standing 6’4” and 240 pounds, Mingo has been criticized for his lack of “big numbers” in college—posting 119 total tackles, 29 tackles for loss and 15 sacks in his three seasons at LSU. What is even more alarming for these scouts is that his production dropped to just 38 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks last season.
However, when you watch Mingo on tape his game speaks for itself. Like Watt and Matthews, he is a relentless defender. He will do whatever it takes to blow up a play, whether it is actually making the tackle or not. If you do not believe me, Youtube his highlights from the team’s bowl game against Clemson.
While Mingo is slated to go in the first round, if the Browns choose to go another route early (say, cornerback) they could land John Simon from Ohio State University in round three.
Simon is the epitome of a guy who could be overlooked by many people in the draft. Standing 6’2” and 263 pounds, Simon was the heart and soul of the Ohio State defense for the past couple of years. While he lined up pretty much everywhere on the defensive line in college, many scouts feel he would be an asset to a 3-4 defense at outside linebacker thanks to his motor, 43 tackles for loss, 20.5 sacks in four seasons and blazing speed for a linebacker—reported timed in the high 4.5s, low 4.6s.
While he will not be a first-round pick because he seemed to struggle a little bit in the Senior Bowl with his man coverage, Simon most certainly could make an impact in rounds two or three as a pass rushing specialist in the 3-4 defense. And that could be just what the doctor ordered for a Browns team that has struggled getting to the quarterback the last couple of seasons.
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Wait a minute? Jones is too big of a gamble at 6…but Mingo isn’t? Look, I absolutely love Mingo’s upside…and stats are not the end-all be-all. But I’ve watched a ton of LSU football (kind of an SEC junkie), and when I see the tape, I see a physical freak who doesn’t quite understand the game of football yet. He’s easily blocked if he can’t get around the edge or in open space…and doesn’t know where the football is sometimes. Other times, his physical ability and speed were just too much to handle for college players. You have to be a little concerned that he really didn’t progress from his frosh season to his jr season. Someone is going to take Mingo early because every NFL coach thinks they can coach a guy up…especially one with the obvious physical tools he has…but it’s still a big risk. This guy can turn into Javon Kearse (or Aldon Smith) or just another great “combine”guy (like Tyson Jackson or Vernon Gholsten). And you can’t compare him to Watt or Matthews, who were thicker, stronger guys coming out of college, with non-stop motors, incredible smarts, and just a will to get after it that you can’t quantify. Maybe Mingo has it…maybe he doesn’t. We’ll see.
Did I say the Browns should take Mingo at No. 6? No…I said he is the type of player who is being bashed for his lack of production that COULD end up being like Watt, Matthews or Smith in the NFL and excelling because of the off the stat sheet intangibles that he possesses. My current hope is that the Browns actually trade out of No. 6 to the middle of the first and pick up a second rounder in the process and then if Mingo is there at say, 14, take him.
As for his lack of progress, um I know you said you watched games but did you miss something? He was an absolute beast his sophomore year with 8 sacks and 15 tackles for a loss (stat sheet stats), but was so disruptive getting into the backfield and blowing up plays. When I watch a player at the college level–especially one who is 240 pounds playing inside and outside on the defensive line being double-teamed a lot–I look for relentlessness and a never quit attitude…and that is something Mingo always showed. In that game against Clemson he was unstoppable.
Guys like Jackson and Gholsten were combine beasts who didn’t show a fraction of what Mingo has shown while in college. And if it came down to it and my decision was between a guy who could be one hit away from being paralyzed at No. 6 and a guy who “underachieved” statistically in college because he was playing out of position–then I would take Mingo.
Mingo’s an if-com. Track athlete learning to play football. I’d rather have a football player who could have run track. His instincts just are not there yet. If they do… He will be a star? If they don’t… Some gm is going to lose their job.
We are going to have to agree to disagree about Mingo. He has shown the ability to disrupt and change games on the defensive line in a short period of time at LSU.
I’m really not trying to play tit-for-tat with you (honestly just having a friendly disagreement)…but I just thought you might want to see the following out of NFL.com: NFL Network’s Mike Mayock expects LSU DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo to fall into the late part of the first round, or perhaps even the second round, as a “developmental” project. Mayock, like NFLN colleague Daniel Jeremiah, seems convinced Mingo has been vastly overrated by media draftniks. Mayock referred to Mingo — a defensive end at LSU — as a “developmental 3-4 outside linebacker” who will be drafted “in the 25-40 (pick) range.”
Don’t mean to beat a dead horse…but…Rob Rang of cbssports…on his big board said the exact same thing today as I did several days ago:
“30. * Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU: Mingo possesses the frame (6-5, 240 pounds) and athleticism to warrant top 10 consideration, but at this point he remains a largely unpolished product who relies on his natural tools rather than technique to make plays. Given Mingo’s upside, it is easy to imagine him terrorizing NFL quarterbacks off the edge as a multi-dimensional defender. Considering Mingo’s relatively pedestrian numbers (38 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks) this season, as well as the struggles of other former highly regarded LSU defensive linemen in the NFL, the general manager who selects him that high is rolling the dice.”
Haha you can beat away at it Steve…I love a good debate. It is all about personal preference of said player. There are a ton of people who feel he is going to be a very good player in the NFL. You quote Rang’s Big Board yet he has him at No. 5 to the Lions on his mock draft from 2/19, while Dane Brugler (also of CBS and NFLDraftScout.com) has him at No. 2 from 2/18. ESPN and Scouts Inc. has him at No. 8 on their Big Board…etc, etc.
Different people are going to evaluate pplayers differently. I am one of the people who think he will be very good, you are on the fence haha it’s all good.